as published by GfK in January 2026 Progressive Preschool
Sales data for Total Baby Care from January to October 2025 shows a market struggling to build value. Value sales during this period are down 3.7% from 2024, driven in part by a 4% price decline. Volume has remained broadly stable at +0.2% year on year. With the GfK Consumer Confidence Index averaging around -19 in 2025, consumers continue to face cost of living pressures, limiting their willingness to invest in higher price products.
At the online and in-store level, performance diverges sharply. Online value between January and October 2025 remained relatively stable at +1.3%, while online volume grew 7.7%. In contrast, in-store sales declined 8.8% in value and 4.5% in volume. Trends differ by sub category.
ONLINE VERSUS IN-STORE
Online share is not increasing in all categories – Baby Monitors, Strollers, Teethers and Warmers & Sterilisers all saw declines in both online value and volume compared with January to October 2024. In-store, one category stands out: Breastfeeding. After several years of decline at the total market level, physical retail has returned to growth with increases in both value and volume.
In 2025, 53% of Baby Care value was spent online, up three points from 2024. Volume, however, remains higher in-store – although online volume share rose from 38% to 41%.
Despite the overall strength of online, several categories continue to rely on physical retail. For Soothers, Strollers and Teethers, more than half of the value spent in 2025 was in-store. For Strollers, this reflects the importance of hands-on evaluation for higher priced models or bundles. For Teethers and Soothers, higher replacement frequency makes in-store purchasing more convenient.
On the other hand, even though in-store still retains the overall volume share, several categories now see more than 50% of their volume purchased online: Car Seats, High Chairs, Baby Monitors, Strollers and Bottle Warmers & Sterilisers.
DISCOUNTING
With Total Baby Care value declining year on year, it is unsurprising that the volume purchased at a 10% or greater price reduction has increased over the same period. The share of total volume bought on a price cut has risen from 27% to 30% year on year. Almost all subcategories saw an Increase in discounted purchasing, except Bottle Warmers & Sterilisers.
Both online and in-store channels experienced growth in discounted volume. Online continues to have a higher share of products purchased on promotion, increasing from 29% in 2024 to 32% in 2025. In-store share rose more modestly from 26% to 28%.
Growth rates also differ by channel – online volume purchased with a 10% plus discount grew 19% in 2025 while online purchases made with little or no discount rose only 3%; in-store, the volume bought with a discount grew 5%, whereas purchases at full or minimal discount declined by 8%.
WHAT THE FUTURE BRINGS
Demand and market value are plateauing. Future success will depend on brand’s and retailers’ ability to accurately interpret market trends and assess whether existing products can be adapted to serve knew or broader audiences.
One opportunity lies in second hand and refurbished offerings. The second hand market remains significant, and if retailers and manufacturers can break into this space, they may be able to bring shoppers back into their ecosystem.
We are grateful to GfK for this research.
