as published by GfK in December 2024 Progressive Preschool
As 2024 draws to a close it is time to review annual performance. Overall, the Baby Care market has remained stable. Between January and September 2024, volume growth was steady at 0%, while value grew 2% versus the same in 2023. This is good news, as the declining birth rate in England and Wales (source: ONS) has yet to impact demand. Sales value is growing, but the volume purchased with a price cut has maintained at the same level as in 2023. This means that value gains are due to increasing prices. Consumers appear to be more willing to trade up to a more expensive product now rather than waiting for a promotional period to get the brand or item that they want on offer versus a year ago.
Online shopping continued to grow over the year, while traditional bricks and mortar / in-store shopping has experienced mixed results. Online sales increased in both value and volume from January to September 2024, both up by 3%. However, price remained stable with value growth driven by growing online demand.
In comparison, traditional in store sales saw volume decline by 2%. Value remained stable at 1%, driven in part by the 3% rise in average price. This growth could be driving more customers online where prices have remained stable.
WHAT PERFORMED WELL IN 2024?
The stand out category performer in 2024 was Bottles and Teats – the only product group within Baby Care to enjoy growth in both volume and value year on year. Volume was up 9% and value was up 19%. Growing demand is due to changes in the items parents are buying. With more breast pumps being sold second-hand, there is more demand to store pumped milk in bottles.
Other products that performed well in 2024 include Soothers and Strollers, which both experienced strong value growth versus 2023. Soother value was up 6% while Stroller value was up 3%. Soother’s success is due to an increase in sales of more affordable brands. These brands grew by 14% between January and September, while premium sales remained stable in terms of value.
In contrast, Strollers have experienced the opposite story. Here, premium brands have continued to grow in value (+ 5%) while affordable brands have decreased ( -3% ) versus 2023.
WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN 2025
In 2025, GfK expects sales volume to decline as the birth rate continues to drop. Brands and retailers may be able to soften the blow if they can take advantage of the second-hand market. Selling pre-loved / refurbished products is a great way to win over consumers who would have been looking at other second-hand market retailers, while also appealing to parents who want to make sustainable / eco-friendly shopping choices. One threat for manufacturers in the next year will be increased competition from smaller brands selling via online marketplaces and dropship. As more retailers offer online marketplaces, more smaller brands enter the market, and the market shrinks, it will inevitably become more competitive. These smaller brands and dropship brands will be a threat to all brands, but in particular to those with more affordable pricing as these newer, smaller brands may have lower prices. Consumers who want premium products will continue to purchase, but players may need to be more competitive with their promotions especially around periods such as Prime Day and Black Friday. This will enable them to appeal to consumers who might be undecided about trading up or choosing the more affordable alternative.
We are grateful to GfK for this research.