as published by GfK in October 2024 Progressive Preschool
As the year progress, the Total Baby Care market has seen little change. Value remains stable, up 2% year on year when comparing August 2023 to July 2024 to the same period 12 months earlier. While value growth remains positive, volume continues to decline, down 3% from August 2023 to July 2024. This reflects the drop in demand driven by the falling birth rate in England and Wales. Certain segments of the market such as Baby Bottles and Teats have significantly driven growth at a Total Baby Care level, but this trend is not consistent across the rest of Baby Feeding.
THE LATEST PERFORMANCE IN BABY FEEDING
While sales of Baby Bottles and Teats have enjoyed strong growth in the last 12 months, not all segments within Baby Feeding have had the same experience. For instance, breastfeeding continued to decline. Total Baby Bottles and Teats rose by 17% in value and 4% in pack volume between August 2023 and July 2024 year on year. Total Breast Feeding was down 4% in value and volume over the same period. This was largely driven by Electric Breast Pumps, the largest value segment within breast feeding (47%). Electric Breast Pumps were down 6% in value and 9% in volume in the same period. Adding data from Nielsen IQ (NIQ) gives us a total picture of the Baby Feeding Market. NIQ’s Scan Track Total Coverage data for the 12 months to 27 July 2024 shows a dip in sales of baby formula/milk. Sales were down 3% in value and 6% in pack volume versus the same period in 2023. This suggests that increases in bottle sales are not due to more people pumping or using formula/milk.
THE DRIVERS OF BABY BOTTLE AND TEAT GROWTH
A detailed examination of GfK’s data for Baby Bottles and Teats reveals some interesting trends. For example, all quantity pack sizes have seen value growth. However, it is not the same for volume. The only pack sizes to see an uptick are single bottles and two-bottle packs. Volume sales of single bottles rose 20% while a pack of two was up 15%. Looking at the intended age for use, bottles for 0-3mths grew 38% in value and 26% in pack volume, and bottles for 3-6mths grew 29% in value and 19% in pack volume. Bottles and teats for infants over 6mths are in decline both by value and volume. We expect that the child birth rate will continue to decline over the next few years before stabilising, so although growth in sales of bottles intended for the first few months would suggest an expected baby boom, it could be a result of consumers buying a greater quantity of bottles or replacing faulty products. This is partly supported by the NIQ Scan Track data for baby formula/milk which shows that sales of first stage baby formula/milk were down 5% in pack volume. If there were to be a baby boom, we might expect baby formula/milk sales for First Stage to be in growth.
LOOKING AHEAD
We expect sales of bottles and teats to remain positive until the end of 2024. It is unclear whether this will continue into 2025, but sales may stabilise in 2025 before they start to decline in 2026 matching the trend in the rest of the market. With the birth rate predicted to continue dropping in England and Wales, we expect to see a continued decline in the Total Baby Market, including segments like Breast Feeding which are already copying the birth rate trend.
We are grateful to GfK for this research.
