as published by GfK in May 2025 Progressive Preschool
In Q1 2025, we see the value for the total Baby Care market has decreased 3.3% on the same quarter last year. This was driven by declines in Safety and Transport product groups. Declines for both the total Baby Care market and Safety and Transport products happened in all three months, with January being the month with the biggest YoY decline. Volume in Q1 is also in decline versus the same period last year (-0.6%). Similar to value, this is being caused by large declines within Safety and Transport product groups.
Average price in Q1 2025 was also in decline (- 2.8%) compared to the same period last year. Average price dropped from £33.44 to £32.52. Baby monitors saw the largest decline YoY, dropping 9.2% from £78.35 to £71.11 whereas the product group that saw the largest price increase in average price was strollers, up 9.9% from £317.70 to £349.10
The Baby Care market is highly influenced by the birth rate, which has been steadily declining YoY in England and Wales, reflecting the slow decline we are seeing in sales. However, consumer confidence can help to indicate whether market conditions might be about to get more difficult for retailers and manufacturers. With the latest consumer confidence in GB also seeing a decline, further declines in the Baby Care market may be coming.
PRICE HIKES?
After April’s cost increases and with Trump’s tariffs threatening, are we on the verge of a new round of high inflation?
Neil Bellamy, Consumer Insights Director at GfK, an NIQ company, says Headline confidence is down 4 points in April led by two sharp drops in our economic measures. There is an eight point fall from -29 to -37 in how people see it the coming year and a 5 point dip for the past year’s economic performance. The future indicator on personal finances has also slipped badly, dropping 4 points to -3. There are good reasons for this downturn. Consumers have not only been a grappling with multiple April cost increases in the form of utilities, council tax, stamp duty and road tax, but they are also hearing dire warnings of renewed high inflation on the back of the Trump tariffs. The inflation rate eased in March, but are we now on the verge of another round of rapidly increasing prices? If so, consumer confidence is likely to collapse and the broad gains seen since the disastrous September 2022 mini budget, when confidence hit a record low of -49, could quickly be eroded.”
The Major Price Index is down two points at -19; this is 6 points better than April last year. The Savings Index has recovered five points to reach +30 in April; this is 4 points better than this time last year.
LOOKING FORWARD
The decline we have seen in confidence in April could only be the start and could continue to get worse over the next few months. This is a view supported by Neil as he also notes, “What is quite interesting is that the Major Purchase Index is only down slightly, while many consumers think prices will rise sharply over the next 12 months, so it seems like many people are buying now before the impact of any price rise hits.”
With the Major Purchase Index starting to fall, this could start impacting more premium products such as baby monitors and strollers, as consumers may start trading down rather than up as they attempt to save more money. What might also start to have an impact is more promotions and price cuts from premium brands to attract consumers who are now less willing to trade up to the higher end.
We are grateful to GfK for this research.
